Obama’s candidacy represented a historic opportunity for black voters that would no longer be present with Clinton, whom he bested in the 2008 Democratic nomination contest. No doubt, Democrats have traditionally dominated among black voters in recent history. Between the time of Jimmy Carter’s victory over Gerald Ford and John Kerry’s loss to George W. Bush in 2004, Democrats won black voters by an average of nearly 75 points. But Obama won the group by 91 points in 2008 and 87 points in 2012.
Also, in Obama’s victories, black voters comprised 13 percent of the electorate — even though, in the prior eight presidential elections, African-Americans never made up more than 11 percent of the electorate and comprised as little as 8 percent (that was in 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first term in the White House).
These might seem like marginal changes, but they could well be determinative. If Hillary’s performance among black voters retreats to more typical Democratic levels, it will hinder her efforts in swing states such as Ohio and Florida, where Democrats need to rack up huge margins in urban areas to make up for their weaknesses in other parts of the states.
When it comes to the youth vote, Obama’s commanding performance relative to his Democratic predecessors is even more apparent.
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