No deal will quell Iran's desire to go nuclear

The Middle East today is more resistant than ever to America’s healing touch. The 1990s disintegration of Yugoslavia demonstrated dangers that accompany nations — Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo — reasserting their sovereignties. Today’s Middle East convulsions demonstrate the greater dangers when nationality is eclipsed by sectarian tribalism. It is unclear what policy changes could give America much control over these events.

Arms-control agreements that substantially alter nations’ arsenals become more possible as they become less important. That is, until events in other spheres make the adversarial nations less so. Having abandoned the unobtainable project of blocking Iran’s path to nuclear weapons, Obama has settled for trying to make the path longer and steeper. Even if the agreement merely extends the time during which Iran deceives inspectors to evade restrictions, time might matter.

Nothing is inevitable, but ten years can be a long time in the life of a nation, especially when the regime is discordant with modernity: In 1979, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan; in 1989, the Berlin Wall came down.