It may seem far too early to make such bold pronouncements, with nine months to go until the Iowa caucuses and with only two candidates formally in the race. But presidential primaries, like presidential general elections, have a set of underlying fundamentals that help determine from the very start which candidate will win the nomination.

These fundamentals — the amount of support from party elites and the potential to build a broad coalition — can be hard to measure. But they nonetheless allow for a much clearer picture of the 2016 Republican race than many people realize. From a historical perspective, these candidates are new characters playing familiar roles. Even if we don’t yet know the ending, we already know a lot.

This article is a guide to the roles that this year’s candidates have already assumed. Based on the levels of elite support and broad acceptability, we place the candidates into three categories — Invisible Primary Leaders, Mainstream Options and Factional Favorites — and explain how they align with historical comparisons.