Why has Russia spent so much money and diplomatic capital on interfering with a region so far from its borders? Because Russia, Iran and China represent the three world powers that are in different ways seeking to challenge the post–World War II, Western-led status quo, according to Walter Russell Mead of Bard College. “Russia wants to reassemble as much of the Soviet Union as it can.… Iran wishes to replace the current order in the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia and dominated by Sunni Arab states, with one centered on Tehran,” argues Mead in an essay in Foreign Affairs magazine. “Leaders in all three countries also agree that U.S. power is the chief obstacle to achieving their revisionist goals.”

In other words, the main wellspring of Moscow’s interest in arming Iran and backing Assad is to use that leverage to extract concessions from Washington for its own empire-building closer to home. “Moscow looks at its role in the Iran talks not so much in its own terms but in how it can play into issues of more central interest to itself,” says Mark Galeotti, a professor of global affairs at New York University. “The West is forced to recognize Moscow’s status as a global power; Iran can feel it has been a good ally; and other current or potential Russian allies can be reassured.”

But what makes Russia’s role in pushing for the lifting of U.N. sanctions on Iran somewhat counterintuitive is that in practical terms such an outcome will be very bad news for Russia’s economy. “Iran needs cash and will not agree to hold back as part of an OPEC [oil] supply–reduction deal,” says analyst Chris Weafer of Macro Advisory. “While a deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program will open up the country’s energy sector for investment and eventually lead not only to a restoration of the 1 million barrels of daily output lost since sanctions were tightened against Tehran, but will also lead to a longer-term rise in both oil and gas output.”