Vladimir Putin's ebbing power

But how long can high approval ratings last in a country so economically and socially frail? To hold off the storm, Putin is successfully distracting the public with international theatrics that tap into his people’s devotion to the motherland. Unfortunately, the maneuver will only deepen the more troubling economic crisis at hand by further cutting off the nation from the global economy. Even after 16 years of absolute power, Putin isn’t immune to forces that will erode the barriers that have kept him on top.

Those forces are global: In every continent and across every sector of human activity, the old order is losing ground. Previously uncontested leaders in government, the military, religious organizations, and businesses are being undermined by unknown or once negligible actors: “micropowers.” Think of ISIS, the destabilizing fringe political parties in Europe, and destructive lone hackers like Edward Snowden.

Deep transformations in society drive those trends. There is more of everything—more people, countries, cities, political parties, and armies; more goods and services, and more companies selling them; more weapons, medicines, students, computers. More people are in the global middle class. Because of this “more” revolution, humanity on the whole is living longer and healthier lives, with basic needs addressed far better than ever. In addition, this more of everything now moves more, making the world harder to control. Information travels faster and wider. Migration and urbanization are uprooting and transforming towns and cities. Global trade has skyrocketed, and money moves at the speed of the Internet. Power needs a captive audience, so the mobility revolution makes it easier for the subjects of unwanted power to evade it and lets challengers circumvent the barriers that shield the incumbents.