Jeb Bush’s nightmare scenario

In January, a focus group in Colorado conducted by Democratic pollster Peter Hart for the Annenberg Public Policy Center found similar findings of an electorate looking for a new generation of leadership. “I wouldn’t be opposed to Congress saying, ‘If your last name is Clinton or Bush, you don’t even get to run,'” one GOP-leaning independent said. Most of the words tied to Bush in a free-association exercise were negative. Among them: “Joke,” “No thank you,” and “Don’t need him.” The Washington Post’s Dan Balz wrote that the participants were “dismissive, sometimes harshly” in their assessment of Bush.

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The focus group anecdotes match what polls have consistently found. Despite Bush’s high profile and standing as a more-pragmatic Republican, his overall favorability ratings are surprisingly mediocre. In a March NBC/Wall Street Journal poll testing whether GOP voters would consider backing certain candidates, Bush’s numbers were in the middle of the pack of the field. While 49 percent of Republicans said they’d consider backing Bush, 42 percent said they couldn’t see themselves supporting him. That net +7 advantage badly trailed Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (+36), Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (+30), and even was behind neurosurgeon Ben Carson (+23), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (+12), and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (+9).

Meanwhile, this month’s CNN/ORC survey found Bush’s more-moderate and pragmatic message hasn’t improved his image. His national favorability rating is at a surprisingly low 31/47 level, hampered by very weak numbers with independents and Democrats. In Iowa, a late-January Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll found his favorables among Republicans barely positive, at 46/43, among the worst of the myriad candidates tested and on the decline from October 2014. In last month’s Bloomberg/Saint Anselm poll in New Hampshire, Bush holds stronger numbers among Republicans (61/26 favorability), but it is still viewed unfavorably by the overall electorate (35/50).

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