What Ted Cruz would need to do to win

The Map
Mr. Cruz’s primary prospects depend on a strong performance in Iowa or South Carolina, both of which include substantial numbers of Christian conservatives. If he is unable to win one of those early states, or at least be one of the top conservatives in the states that kick off the nominating process, he will have a difficult time surviving into March, when there is likely to be a rapid succession of contests. Against a Democrat, Mr. Cruz would look to perform better than Mitt Romney in some of the Midwestern states among so-called Reagan Democrats, the heavily Catholic bloc of blue-collar voters who left their ancestral party to back Ronald Reagan, and evangelical voters…

Why He Could Win
The presidencies of George W. Bush and Mr. Obama have pushed many Republicans toward a more doctrinaire brand of conservatism and away from the tradition of nominating candidates aligned with the establishment. By virtue of his strong rhetorical skills, biographical appeal and uncompromising conservatism, Mr. Cruz is the most logical nominee in a party that has turned sharply to the right. In a general election, fatigue toward the Obama years and the difficulty any party has in holding the White House for three consecutive terms could vault him to victory.