Last month, I noted that a poll showing increased hawkishness on national security issues was a bad sign for Paul. Jim Antle, in response, noted at Rare that Paul overcame criticisms of his foreign policy in 2010, when he won his primary in Kentucky. But in 2010, his opponent, Trey Grayson, was seen as the establishment choice in a Tea Party-fueled wave election year. So when Grayson attacked Paul on foreign policy, he didn’t have much credibility among conservative primary voters.

If Paul were merely trying to fend off attacks from like likes of Jeb Bush, then yes, perhaps Paul would have an opening. But with Cruz no doubt prepared to aggressively attack Paul for his foreign policy views, that narrow opening is likely closed.