First, her government’s decision to abandon nuclear power has made Germany more dependent on natural gas imports, and therefore on Russia.

Second, it is increasingly clear to all involved that nobody can trust the U.S. After all, the Obama administration has still basically not outlined a strategy for how to deal with the Ukraine situation. Why would Germany spend political capital facing off against Russia when there is no plan to muscle Russia out of Ukraine, and no true political will to see it done?

Third, and perhaps most importantly, Germany will keep its attention focused on Europe only when it is wedded to France. It is the French-German “couple” that has been the engine of the European Union. As Charles de Gaulle understood, it is incumbent upon France to build as tight a relationship with Germany as possible so that bad instincts may be smothered and that the two couples might give the continent a unifying vision. But while François Hollande’s foreign policy has seen some bright spots, notably dealing with Islamists in sub-Saharan Africa, his lack of vision and his country’s general economic malaise have prevented France from taking any kind of leadership role, either in Ukraine or in the EU at large (which has also been a major source of aggravation of the Euro crisis).