Would a Supreme Court decision in favor of gay marriage end the religious right?

Social conservatism is relative and not static. There was a time when people debated the role of women in the workplace. The end of that debate did not signal the end of social conservatism. In fact, the face of social conservatism as far back as the 1970s was Phyllis Schlafly, who — whatever her views on working women — was one. She’s in her 90s and still working today.

It’s hard to predict the politics of social issues. For a while in the 1990s, it looked like abortion was going to be an unambiguous liberal victory while gay rights was still polarizing. Conservatives like Charles Krauthammer were urging Republicans to wave the white flag in the “abortion wars” while polls showed only 27 percent support for gay marriage as late as 1996.

Now it looks like the opposite is the case. Abortion is as contested as ever while gay rights — including gay marriage — reflect a new social consensus. Part of this is because gay rights activists stopped doing things like protesting churches and started asking for socially conservative things, like joining marriage, the military and the Boy Scouts.

If a large enough group of people starts agitating for polygamy, that issue could replace gay marriage and some number of people who support gay marriage will oppose it.