The Democratic Party has pool of campaign managerial talent, an enormous base of donors, and the sympathy of the media that are consumed by persuadable voters. I think the current Democratic coalition is vulnerable to splintering from both its left and center, but I don’t think that will happen in the 2016 presidential race. The vast majority of Democratic primary voters are not going to be looking to symbolically repudiate Obama through their choice of nominee – especially if the labor market holds up. While there might be some minor variations on policy, the 2016 Democratic nominee (whether it is Clinton or someone else) will end up favoring pretty much whatever Obama favors.
Virtually any Democratic presidential nominee would have those advantages. The challenge for a Democratic presidential candidate is not so much mobilizing those advantages once they get the nomination, but getting the nomination itself. The obstacle to a contested Democratic nomination is less the absence of a Democratic bench, than the presence of Clinton and her advantages in name recognition and institutional support.
While any non-Clinton Democratic candidate would have their own weaknesses (as every candidate has weaknesses), they would not carry the burden of Clinton’s contempt for the rules, her obnoxious and geriatric press agents, and her obviously self-interested hunger for power.
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