Why the debates will determine the 2016 GOP nomination

In 2012 the only candidate who had the base, money, and organization to compete with Romney nationally was Texas Gov. Rick Perry, but he was done in by the debates. Not only did Romney best him head-to-head, but Perry told a Tea Party debate crowd in Florida that if they didn’t want to pay for the college tuition of illegals “they don’t have a heart.” Once that clip went public Perry needed to prepare his concession speech.

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The next time the debates changed the race was in South Carolina, when Newt Gingrich confronted two different debate moderators who questioned him about his past indiscretions, and subsequently grabbed the win in that traditionally crucial primary. However, Romney regrouped and ambushed Gingrich in the Florida primary debate to change the momentum there. After that Gingrich was basically finished.

Santorum was up next, except there weren’t any more debates after Feb. 23. For an under-funded candidate like Santorum — who couldn’t match Romney on-air — that was a severe disadvantage. The lack of debates at that juncture meant Santorum never had the chance to land a body blow, let alone a kill shot on Romney, who would eventually outlast him and capture the nomination.

With that said, why have the debates become so important?

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