What if Hillary bows out?

So while we’d see a massive progressive outpouring for Warren, other candidates would likely jump in well before her. Jeb Bush this year has shown the power of first-mover advantage, while last cycle, Rick Perry exemplified the risks of the overhyped, super-scrutinized late entrance.

In the end, the nomination would probably devolve to the most persuasive and Hillary-like of the non-Hillarys, someone adept at co-opting the best of the Warren rhetoric while also calming the nerves of the Democratic donor base. The old joke from Will Rogers—“I am not a member of any organized political party, I am a Democrat”—hasn’t really applied in recent years. Fences were mended in 2008. Party unity helped muscle through a great deal of Obama’s agenda. The midterm defeat in 2010 did not lead to a circular firing squad in 2012. If anything, party unity was arguably a little too tight in 2014.

Democrats have stuck together not because everyone agrees on everything. Nor is it a matter of charismatic personalities—if it was, Obama loyalists and Clinton loyalists would have had a much harder time reconciling. What Democrats have, and Republicans lack, is a higher tolerance for differences of opinion and a greater willingness to compromise.