Could a Republican win the general election? Probably not. Maryland is something of a city-state, with most of its population living in urban and suburban areas around D.C. or Baltimore. Many of these voters are socially liberal, depend on the federal government for their livelihoods, and resist GOP anti-government rhetoric. Overall, this was Obama’s fifth-best state in 2012, giving the president a larger victory margin than Massachusetts or California.
It hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1980, and hasn’t elected a Republican senator who might fit in with today’s more solidly conservative GOP caucus since 1970 (that senator, J. Glenn Beall Jr., lost by 18 points in 1976 to Paul Sarbanes). Michael Steele was something of a perfect GOP candidate in 2006, who ran a clever campaign against a mediocre Democrat, yet still lost by 11 points. He might have won in a good GOP year, but he wouldn’t have had much room for error.
The best showing for a Republican in a presidential year was George W. Bush’s 13-point loss to John Kerry in 2004.
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