A wild ride in 2016: New GOP rules make the choice of a nominee far more uncertain than in years past

March’s proportional primaries further winnow the field, with the late March and early April winner-take-all primaries settling the contest. In this scenario, the quality of each candidate’s message is likely to be the most important element in determining the outcome.

But more so than in the past, momentum in early March, strong organizations in the March states, and sufficient money to spend effectively could seal the nomination.

Another scenario: The field is so jumbled following the February contests that the late March/early April primaries narrow the field but don’t produce a winner. The race continues through the spring, probably involving two candidates locked in fierce struggle.