Currently, more than three-quarters of Republicans want someone other than Bush. The frontrunner depends on a split in conservative ranks — which appears to be happening — as well as a concerted push by the party’s establishment leaders and donors to freeze out Bush alternatives (including Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, and John Kasich). We’ve always doubted Romney would run unless the pragmatists in the leadership and donor class deemed a rescue mission essential; right now, they do not. The remaining Bush alternatives are still in the game, though.
The other major development is in Tier Six (Wild Cards), with Mike Huckabee’s dramatic move. Most observers had severe doubts Huck would run, given his six years away from elective politics and his lucrative Fox News Channel gig. Now the former governor has walked away from a large TV paycheck and started assembling a campaign team. We’re moving him to Tier Three, where he joins other “Outsiders” Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. Huckabee, a Baptist preacher, has deep, genuine appeal to social conservatives, as do Cruz, Carson, and Rick Santorum.
There are additional pluses for Huck: He’s been around the presidential track with some success, and in 2008 demonstrated strength among blue collars. Nevertheless, a repeat Iowa victory in 2016’s caucuses is hardly guaranteed because he’s splitting evangelicals with many others. Huckabee might also have trouble, as he did in 2008, raising the tens of millions needed to compete throughout the season. Moreover, the Club for Growth and other anti-tax and spending groups will mobilize against Huckabee, claiming he had a “liberal” record on their issues while governor of Arkansas.
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