Huckabee also kept anybody else from being able to go toe to toe with McCain. He essentially knocked Thompson, who finished third in the Huckabee states of Iowa and South Carolina, out of the race, and then split the conservative vote with Romney. The two ex-governors became regional candidates. Huckabee’s stronghold was the South, while Romney did better in the Mountain States.
Perhaps Huckabee can top his 2008 showing. If Jeb Bush runs but Chris Christie proves more durable than Giuliani, Huckabee may be positioned to win more states with 25 to 30 percent of the vote. That probably wouldn’t suffice for the nomination by itself, but it could buy him more time to broaden his base.
The likelier scenario is that if Huckabee is once again the evangelical candidate, he will prevent other conservatives with non-evangelical appeal—and probably more money and better organizations—from gaining steam. This is especially true in Iowa, where evangelicals have in the past been willing to support socially conservative candidates who support a restrained foreign policy, most notably Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul.
Keeping Huckabee from consolidating the evangelical vote will be important for some of the other candidates.
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