But hey, a strong second place finish would refresh his brand and strengthen his position as a powerbroker within the right. Not so fast. This isn’t going to be like 2008. Huckabee is probably the most likeable candidate in the field, but he isn’t going to sneak up on anyone this time. He enters with higher name recognition, but also with a target on his back.
No, I don’t mean from the Republican establishment. I mean from the candidates who will look to run as populist alternatives to the Republican establishment candidates. I don’t see any path for a Republican populist that does not include a very large share of the conservative evangelical vote. If Huckabee dominates among conservative evangelicals, there is no room for a Ted Cruz or a Rick Santorum and much less room for Rand Paul to improve on his father’s 2012 performance. In order for these alternative candidates to have a chance, they would have to break apart Huckabee as a viable candidate (Rand Paul has already started). If they can’t do that, they don’t have anything. Those are the incentives.
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