Jeb Bush vs. Ted Cruz

Why nominate this man? The most common explanation: His widely perceived alternative, grassroots favorite, Ted Cruz, cannot win. Cruz, establishment Republicans say, polarizes instead of unifying; he alienates rather than attracting. But that notion springs, once again, from “The Price Is Right” strategy: If the middle voter is your target, Cruz isn’t your man. But the middle voter was Mitt Romney’s target in 2012, and he got him — Romney won independents 50-45, but lost the election by five million votes. The middle voter was John McCain’s target, too — so much so that McCain considered naming Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman as his running mate. He lost decisively, too.

Will Ted Cruz lose more decisively than either of his predecessors? That’s a possibility. But margin of loss is significantly less important than the direction of the political narrative. Party insiders see the 1964 nomination of right-wing Barry Goldwater as a massive defeat. Those outside the party infrastructure see it for what it was: a ground shift in Republican politics that led to the rise of Ronald Reagan. Better to nominate someone who will change the conversation and lose than someone who will reinforce that the parties stand for the same tired politics of failure.

Or, perhaps, Cruz doesn’t lose at all. Perhaps it turns out that voters are driven by vision and passion rather than bromides from the Yorks and Lancasters of American politics. Perhaps Ted Cruz, or someone like him, actually animates people rather than treating them like widgets to be manipulated by those born to the purple. Perhaps politics isn’t “The Price Is Right.”