Increasingly, though, one encounters public and private signs that Chinese officials are viewing North Korea as more strategic liability than asset. Beijing is frustrated that Pyongyang ignores its requests to freeze or even dismantle its nuclear program lest these efforts lead South Korea and Japan to develop their own nuclear weapons. More broadly, China has tired of an expensive relationship in which its interests are greater than its influence. Making matters worse was Kim Jong Un’s decision to execute his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, widely viewed as China’s man in Pyongyang.
China needs years and more likely decades of relative stability in the region so that it can continue to address its many domestic challenges. North Korea is a threat to such stability. Meanwhile China’s ties with South Korea have flourished. China is the South’s leading economic partner; Chinese leader Xi Jinping has traveled to Seoul but not to Pyongyang.
So what needs doing? The priority must be to persuade China that the demise of North Korea need not be something to fear. Washington and Beijing should convene talks about how they could manage scenarios, including North Korean collapse and aggression. Nuclear weapons and materials would need to be secured. Governments need to make plans to ensure U.S., South Korean and Chinese forces do not come into conflict.
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