It’s hardest to dismiss Carson’s support in Iowa. He came in second place in a Des Moines Register survey conducted in October with 11 percent — even though only 49 percent of potential caucus-goers knew enough about him to form an opinion. His ratio of support to name recognition was higher than that of any other candidate polled, including 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Carson has a chairperson in each of Iowa’s 99 counties; he has a real following in the Hawkeye State.
Carson also has some history on his side in Iowa. Political novices who haven’t held elected office have a bad record in nomination fights overall, but they’ve done OK in Iowa. In 1988, the Christian Broadcasting Network’s Pat Robertson earned a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. In 2000, businessman Steve Forbes earned the runner-up spot. Forbes also came in a respectable fourth in the caucuses four years earlier, the same year he won the Arizona and Delaware primaries.
Carson’s problem, though, is that his high ratio of support to name recognition is likely a mirage. He was a contributor to Fox News through this past November. These appearances allowed him to build up his brand among Republicans without negative attacks. Combine his role on Fox News with the fact that he is already airing television ads, and it’s clear why Carson is so well liked — he’s had the stage to himself.
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