How Jeb Bush can thread the needle and win

Having said that, the other side of the coin is that he cannot back down. Most politicians are really good at either indignation (being tough) or compassion (being soft) — but few (the greats like Ronald Reagan) can do both.

You can be hard-core conservative and soft — or you can be moderate and tough — but you cannot be moderate and soft if you expect to win the nomination. Here, style matters greatly. Therefore, if Jeb wants to sell a more moderate form of conservatism, he has to do it in a tough and forceful manner.

Since we tend to conflate toughness with ideological purity, it is vital for someone advocating moderate or center-right policies to do so in a forceful and confident manner — all without lecturing. And therein lies the problem. There is a fine line between confidence and arrogance — between sticking to your guns and lecturing. That’s why this gambit is fraught with danger.