What would happen if Congress split into four parties?

The short answer is: Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) are still the most powerful members of Congress. It’s just that they have a much smaller base from which to operate.

If we assign members of Congress to political parties based on the spending votes, we end up with four parties. The Liberals bucked the Democratic president to oppose the spending package. The Democrats voted for it. The Republicans followed Boehner and McConnell’s lead. The Conservatives didn’t. It gives us maps of the House and Senate that look like this, with the actual party composition underneath. (Note that this is only based on 1) people who voted on the spending package and 2) are returning to the 114th Congress.)…

Where this really gets interesting right off the bat is in the determination of House Speaker, as Josh Fruhlinger points out on Twitter. Boehner would need to carry his Republican votes and then scoop up additional support from the Conservatives. This seems probable, given the depth of support that Pelosi sees and, even in this new, four-party Congress, the Conservatives would take Boehner over Pelosi. Somehow, a Conservative-Liberal governing coalition seems … unlikely.