If Mr. Pataki were exploring running in a four candidate field against, say, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Mitt Romney, he would have little chance of winning. However, in a larger field where every faction–the moderates, the religious fundamentalists, the foreign policy hawks and others are divided–anything can happen. The road to the nomination for Mr. Pataki is difficult, but not all that complicated. As northern moderate who has survived in the country’s toughest media market and won three elections in a relatively deep blue state, Mr. Pataki could easily position himself as an electable candidate, who won state-wide office three times in a liberal state.
Mr. Pataki’s chances would depend on who else runs. If Mr. Romney and Jeb Bush both run, the space for moderate establishment Republicans will be relatively limited, but if they both choose not to run Mr. Pataki will be in a much stronger position. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie would likely be a direct competitor, but Mr. Pataki probably sees himself as more polished, experienced and free of scandal than Mr. Christie. It is therefore possible that Mr. Pataki figures that if Romney and Bush don’t run, Christie will likely self-destruct leaving Pataki as the last moderate standing in a field of rightists or radical Libertarians.
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