Will Florida ever be a battleground again?

Since 1996, non-Hispanic whites’ share of eligible voters has declined an average of 2 percentage points every presidential election, to 71 percent in 2012, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

“The shift is dramatic,” said Jen O’Malley Dillon, who helped manage President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign. “You’re talking about a significant impact on the electorate in swing states.”

The share of eligible voters who are non-Hispanic whites will decline between 2012 and 2016 by nearly 5 percentage points in Nevada, nearly 4 points in Florida, and about 2 points in North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado, according to projections by the Center for American Progress, a research group aligned with the Obama administration.

“It’s not just that there will be more people of color going to the polls, it’s that they’re going to the polls in places where every vote counts,” said Oakford, who made the 2016 Florida vote projection for Bloomberg.