In fact, because he will be replacing Baghdadi, who has military bona fides and has nurtured a cult of personality at the top of ISIS, the next leader may try to prove his mettle by being even more expansionist and ruthless.
“He needs to show that he’s capable of leading from Day 1,” said Laith Alkhouri, the director of Middle East and North Africa research for Flashpoint Intelligence, which studies and consults on global security.
The United States has not confirmed that Baghdadi, who has led ISIS since 2010, was wounded in any airstrike. The Iraqi defense and interior ministries both put out statements Sunday saying that he had been hit. But the analysts pointed out that the Iraqi government has a spotty record when it comes to reporting the deaths of militants, and they also raised the possibility that Iraq is trying to goad ISIS into proving Baghdadi is alive, perhaps providing hints to his whereabouts.
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