How likely is it that North Korea would use nuclear weapons?

Before it can use them militarily, North Korea would need to deploy them. Whether it has done so is ambiguous.

Nonetheless, North Korea can deploy nuclear tipped missiles on the Nodong today. There is no evidence it has done so but over the next several years, we may learn that it has deployed a nuclear arsenal.

With nuclear tipped missiles, North Korea would have a capability to strike its neighbors with nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, the chance of nuclear weapons being used will likely remain very low.

However, there is always the possibility for miscalculation, for example a small conventional exchange growing out of control and leading North Korea to feel cornered and desperate enough to threaten and even use nuclear weapons.