What to expect from Senate polls in the final days

But based on this analysis, I think we’d say as follows: Pryor, Landrieu, and Begich are in deep trouble. It would probably require a fundamental shift in historic patterns for them to win. This could absolutely happen, but it is extremely difficult to predict these sorts of shifts. Analysts trying to predict these shifts might be correct every now and again, but over the long run, they will be wrong more often than not.

The Senate race in Colorado and even North Carolina really should be considered Toss-ups. We would probably put a thumb on the scale for Hagan, and a thumb on the scale against Udall (although the introduction of all-mail balloting really does create some added uncertainty about the polls here). On the Republican side, we’d see McConnell and Roberts as Toss-ups as well, although the national environment and orientation of their states probably counsels putting a thumb on the scale for them (a very light one in Roberts’ case). Finally, Shaheen isn’t out of the woods, although the forest line is in sight.

This doesn’t mean that Senate control is a done deal for Republicans by any stretch. But it should be sobering for the analyst attempting to sketch out how the next three weeks will go for Democrats. To predict Democrats retaining Senate control, you basically have to bet on (a) Democrats sweeping South Dakota, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina; (b) picking off enough Republican seats in very red states like Kentucky, Kansas, or Georgia to offset any losses in (a) or; (c) systemic polling failure. You can make a plausible case for each of those scenarios, with (b) probably being the most likely. Regardless, given the current state of polling and knowing how races have behaved over the past few cycles, those really do appear to be the options left for Democrats.