Kansas Senate poll: Pat Roberts 49, Greg Orman 48

The survey’s results, with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, are a major reversal from recent polls that have found Orman surging ahead. An NBC/Marist poll released three days ago showed the challenger with a 10 percentage point advantage over Roberts.

“Turnout is likely to be key — the higher the number of Republicans who vote, the better for Roberts, and Republicans have been at least 43% of the vote (and usually higher) in Kansas elections since 2000,” said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

“Roberts must convince disaffected Republicans to like him again. An 80% favorable rating among Republican likely voters in the current poll indicates that he may have closed that part of the deal,” he said.