The NFL has a lower rate of domestic violence than the general population

Back in July, FiveThirtyEight’s Benjamin Morris tallied up the incidents in USA Today’s NFL Arrests Database to discern crime rates among NFL players. He then compared those numbers to the national averages among 25-29 year olds, and found the rate of domestic violence in the NFL to be 55.4% that of the general population. And the overall crime rate was a mere 13% of the national average.

So why then do 69% of Americans believe that the NFL suffers a “widespread epidemic of domestic violence problems”? The answer is rooted in how we think. Humans are prone to rely on examples and experiences that can be easily recalled. The idea is that if we can remember it, it must be important. This mental shortcut is termed the availability heuristic. A key drawback of the heuristic is that it leads us to overestimate the prevalence of memorable events. Here, you can legitimately blame popular media. Because plane crashes are widely covered, many erroneously view flying as more dangerous than driving. Thanks to Shark Week, people are wearier of sharks than deer. Because 91% of people have seen, read, or heard something about Ray Rice’s domestic violence, they overestimate the problem of domestic violence in the NFL.