How the GOP got this way

Republican primary voters appear somewhat chastened by the high-profile general election defeats of prominent Senate primary winners in 2010 and 2012 and by the sharp negative public reaction to the party during the government shutdown in October 2013 — a reaction that was promptly reversed when the shutdown ended and the focus shifted to the disastrous rollout of Obamacare’s healthcare.gov. Voters have not rallied to candidates who seem most inclined to stand up on a chair and yell, “Hell, no!” But they have not voted reliably for seasoned incumbents either, as House Majority Leader Eric Cantor so painfully found out. This summer three septuagenarian Republican senators fell just short of 50 percent of the vote in their primaries. None was actually defeated: Thad Cochran of Mississippi prevailed in the runoff three weeks later, and Pat Roberts of Kansas and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee won pluralities in states without runoffs.

Neither party insurgents nor party veterans can expect to prevail in effectively uncontested primaries, but primary voters seem to be trying to avoid nominees incapable of winning or are capable of losing winnable general elections. In retrospect, the decisions of Republican primary voters in the 2012 presidential primaries seem to reflect similar impulses, with Romney prevailing over seemingly less electable candidates.

The current splits in the Republican Party are not analogous to those between Taft and Eisenhower Republicans in the 1950s or between Goldwater and Rockefeller Republicans in the 1960s. Those were fights between Republicans with directly opposing views on major issues. Today’s Republicans are largely united in opposition to the policies of the Obama administration, but they disagree on tactics — almost inevitably, since with control of only one chamber of Congress, Republicans are limited in what they can accomplish legislatively. Much more important are the potential divisions, or at least different approaches, over which policies Republicans should pursue if and when they win majorities in both chambers and the presidency in 2016. Some clarifying debate is beginning. So-called reform conservatives are advancing policies different from those of Reagan and the Bushes, and advocates of more market-oriented healthcare provisions are advancing alternatives to Obamacare of varying boldness.