After slow growth, experts say health-care spending is expected to climb

The combined effects of the Affordable Care Act, faster economic growth and the aging of the population will fuel the growth of health spending this year and in the coming decade, according to a report by a team of nonpartisan economists and actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

“The period in which health care has accounted for a stable share of economic output is projected to end in 2014, primarily because of the coverage expansions of the Affordable Care Act,” said the report, by Andrea M. Sisko and colleagues at the federal health care agency.

Still, they said, even as millions of people gain coverage, the average annual rate of increase in health spending through 2023 will be somewhat lower than it was in the two decades before the recession that began in late 2007.