Walker occupies a unique spot in the early 2016 sweepstakes. He’s beloved by movement conservatives large donors. And he’s a Midwesterner in a prospective field of blue chip Republicans from the Northeast (Chris Christie) and the South (Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal).

But his appeal would instantly be erased by a loss to Burke. Donors and activists simply aren’t inclined to back someone who is fresh off being tossed out of office.

At a Christian Science Monitor Breakfast last November, Walker told reporters he was keenly focused on the 2014 midterms — not just because of his own election, but also because 2016 won’t “matter as much” if a Republican president did not have a Republican Congress.

We know this much: If Walker doesn’t win his reelection campaign, 2016 won’t likely matter for him at all.