Who’d want to be in the boss’s shoes? Instead of a thunderous Novorossiya blitzkrieg greeted by the jubilation of women, he got the quagmire of a long, bloody fratricidal war—one, moreover, that looks more and more obviously lost. Add to that the albatross of three hundred foreign dead bodies around his neck.

Right now, Putin has several choices:

(1) Ditch the insurgents, seek compromise, and risk losing face in front of the Russian public whose nationalist fervor he has whipped up: from world-defying Protector of Russians Everywhere to craven sellout on bended knee before the West. (What’s more, the betrayed insurgents could come back to foment nationalist unrest within Russia.)

(2) Openly invade Eastern Ukraine on a “peacekeeping” mission—a scenario rife with obvious potential for disaster.

(3) Continue unofficially aiding the “Donetsk Republic” with manpower, firepower and other support, creating a long-term “frozen conflict” in Eastern Ukraine. While this would not be as disastrous as open war, it would still risk even stronger international backlash, including more sanctions that could severely hurt not only Russia’s economy but the personal fortunes of Putin and his crony capitalists. It could also become a non-option if the Ukrainian army manages to rout the insurgency.