A combination of threats followed by limited international intervention and mediated negotiations is far more likely to succeed. This three-pronged approach should begin with a threat, issued by the United States and European countries, of a limited military intervention to force the warring sides to withdraw from the two major cities and cease firing upon civilians and installations; militias that disobey the order should be targeted with airstrikes.

Second, the international community should deploy a peacekeeping force to protect civilians, government institutions and vital installations, such as water reservoirs, electricity grids and oil fields.

Third, the United Nations must aggressively mediate negotiations to reach a grand political bargain. This would involve the formation of a national unity government and a mutually agreed-upon roadmap to disarm the militias, restart the economy, and allow the political transition process to continue, including the convening of the newly elected Parliament.