Yet elsewhere in the first video, Gruber said the federal government was slow-walking its exchanges to “squeeze” the states into establishing exchanges themselves. So even under this theory, he is confirming it is plausible that federal officials would withhold tax credits in uncooperative states in order to spur states to action. Moreover, he also noted that the tax credits might not be enough to spur states to action — without ever suggesting residents of those states would receive tax credits through a federal exchange anyway.

Back in January 2012, before anyone knew 36 states would refuse to establish an exchange, Gruber understood and had no problem with what the law says. When it became apparent that two-thirds of the states would not establish exchanges, and that this language therefore threatened the PPACA’s survival, Gruber changed his tune.

The problem with his explanations is that Jonathan Gruber doesn’t “flake.” He knows this law in and out. He knew what his words meant, with all their implications, when he spoke them. He knew the feature he was describing essentially gave each state a veto over the PPACA’s exchange subsidies, employer mandate and to a large extent its individual mandate. He knew that could lead to adverse selection. To claim Gruber didn’t know what he was saying is as absurd as saying a conductor might fail to notice that the brass section suddenly stopped playing.