The danger of Democratic overconfidence

This Democratic voter says she believes Clinton “has a better chance of beating a Republican,” and yet appears to be supporting Warren anyway. You get the feeling that some young Democrats think whoever they nominate will win (a belief that was reinforced in 2008 when they passed over Clinton for Obama and still won)— so why not pick the most liberal candidate possible?

But mark my words: Despite her populist appeal, if Democrats nominated Elizabeth Warren, she would probably lose to Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, or any number of other GOP candidates. The same is true for other potential Dem contenders — Brian Schweitzer, Martin O’Malley, Joe Biden — who are either totally unknown outside their states, too liberal to appeal to independent voters, or are too closely tied to Obama’s sputtering presidency.

Many Democrats are no longer desperate, so they have the luxury of falling in love — not in line. That might feel positively liberating. But Democrats also might well lose as a result.