Republican hardliners in Congress and their enablers on the grassroots right will expect a Senate takeover to translate into the kinds of results they’ve been denied thus far. No more blinking in budget showdowns. No more balking at the prospect of confrontation.

But by the time those fights roll around, the presidential contest will be in full swing, and to the extent that mollifying the base would be politically damaging to the Republican party nationally, Congressional leaders will be more reluctant than they are now to do so. If GOP voters nominate a member of the Senate or House, that person will be linked to the Congressional party and all of its hijinx. If they nominate a governor or a former governor, that person will feel tremendous pressure to draw contrasts and divide the party ahead of the election. Those are both outcomes Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would like to avoid.

I’m not sure how Republicans would ultimately resolve the tension, but I’m quite confident that the hardline faction will demand confrontation with the White House over Obamacare and greenhouse gas regulations; that they will insist upon using must-pass measures like the debt limit and appropriations bills as vehicles for those fights; that they will try to deny Obama nominees (including, perhaps, a Supreme Court nominee or two) confirmation; and that they will be somewhat more excited about the prospects of impeachment than they are today.