Meanwhile, Hillary is repeating the mistake she made in 2008: targeting the general election voters and ignoring the primary electorate. Back then, she supported the Iraq War until well into 2007 and voted for the Patriot Act, alienating her base.

Now, fearful of Obama’s drag on a 2016 ticket, she is distancing herself from the president, obliquely criticizing him as a man who paints “a beautiful vision” but cannot follow through to get it passed. This won’t play well with the base.

The only real argument Hillary would have against Warren is inevitability — Hillary would win. That kind of argument holds supporters for a while. But as more and more turn to Warren, drawn by her ideology and her challenge to Wall Street power, the odds become shorter and her chances better. Then, a self-fulfilling prophecy can set in, fueling her candidacy with each gain in poll numbers.

And then Democrats will remember how Hillary blew the nomination — once assumed to be safely hers — in 2007-2008. The less she looks like a winner, the more they will turn to Warren.