The Obama administration has long hoped that a nuclear deal would strengthen moderate forces inside Iran and thus over time change Iranian behavior in the region. Perhaps that’s a pipe dream. But Iran has a large middle class that demands a better life. It has great writers and filmmakers (though ordinary Iranians can’t see much of their work), and is a cosmopolitan nation with a deep sense of its ancient Persian roots. The only time I was in Tehran, a decade ago, I kept finding myself thinking what a great place it would be if only the bearded lunatics who run the country would return to the mosque. It’s clear that many Iranians think so as well.

America’s chief ally in the region, besides Israel, is Saudi Arabia. Though a theocracy like Iran, Saudi Arabia is a status quo power rather than a revolutionary one. America’s Gulf allies keep reminding it that Saudi Arabia is America’s great friend, and Iran its implacable enemy. Yet the Saudis have also set fires in the region through the export of their harsh Wahhabi faith. They are as responsible as Iran is for the sectarian bloodletting that now convulses the Middle East. What’s more, Saudi Arabia is a vastly more reactionary, more self-enclosed society than Iran. Iranian women work; Saudi women can’t even drive. Try making a list of Saudi writers, filmmakers, or intellectuals. Very short thought experiment, no? Here’s another: Try to imagine what Saudi Arabia will look like in 10 or 20 years. Given the rapid growth in population, the declining price of oil, and the country’s extreme social and political rigidity, it may well look like a poorer, shakier, and perhaps much more dangerous version of its current self.

One can at least imagine an alternate scenario in which Iran looks very much better than it does now, and thus like a far more suitable ally than the Saudis. One can imagine Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey serving as regional gendarmes over a fractious, largely impoverished Arab world. The West, of course, should do what it can to make that fantasy a little more likely. President Obama can make a start this week by standing up to the warmongers.