Republicans' choice to hold 2016 convention in Cleveland probably won't help them in Ohio

If we look at just the Republican side, the candidates have done 0.7 percentage points worse compared to their national swing on average. Six candidates did better, and six candidates lost ground. This included Romney, who gained on McCain’s 2008 margin in Florida, but by fewer points than he gained nationally.

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There’s a somewhat stronger argument that Democrats have done better in the states where they held their convention. They did 1.6 percentage points better in their convention states, on average, than they did nationally. In a close election, that’s enough to make a difference. But again, that’s a small enough difference that a large portion of it could be attributable to randomness.

Now, there are obviously other confounding variables, including home state advantages, the actual content of the conventions (was there a major flub?) and money spent on advertising. Also, correlation does not equal causation.

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