As Ofra Bengio, head of the Kurdish Study Program at the Moshe Dayan Center in Tel Aviv, recently noted in the Jerusalem Post, this appears to be the Kurdish moment in the Middle East. Syria is “neutralized by its own struggle for survival” and “will not . . . raise a finger against the Kurds.” It is hard to imagine that Jordan, Saudi Arabia or Kuwait would do so either. Turkey is willing to accept an independent Iraqi Kurdistan, and its control of the oil pipeline would give the new Kurdish state incentives not to meddle with Turkey’s Kurds. As for Iran, says Mr. Bengio, Tehran is “up to its neck with business and relations with the Kurds.”
Kurdish leaders, though cautious, believe that recent events augur fundamental changes. Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, recently stated that it would be “almost impossible” for things to return to the way they were before the extremist forces of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, captured Mosul. Responding to U.S. pressure to support a new multi-sectarian government in Baghdad, Kurdish President Masoud Barzani told Mr. Kerry on Tuesday that “We are facing a new reality and a new Iraq.”
Israel, America’s staunchest ally in the Middle East, would welcome an independent Kurdistan, which it regards as a likely ally. Reuters reported on Friday that a tanker carrying Kurdish oil had docked that day in the Israeli port of Ashkelon. Indifferent to the Iraqi threats that deterred other nations from purchasing this oil, Israel would provide a steady market for future Kurdish production.
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