The year 2012 was relatively quiet in terms of violence but some saw signs of a resurgent problem. Michael Knights, a scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, briefed the National Security Council staff on indicators of a reviving insurgency, but officials said there was internal debate over whether his numbers showed what he said they did.
With American troops gone, Mr. Obama focused his attention on other issues, not to mention his re-election. There was ample evidence that Mr. Maliki might return to the sort of sectarian approach that alienated Sunnis in the past, sowing the sort of disaffection that would ultimately create an environment that would prove fertile for ISIS. But Mr. Obama had no regular contact with Mr. Maliki, leaving it to others to manage.
“The last three years saw a continuous erosion of Iraq’s institutions — from the marginalization of Parliament to the politicization of the military and judiciary — without much or any public criticism or U.S. pushback from the highest levels,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, who was Mr. Bush’s deputy national security adviser.
Mr. Obama believed it was time for Iraq to handle its own affairs.
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