The most painful exclusion will be Taiwan. America cannot prevent China taking control of the island eventually, one way or another. That means it’s important to leave Taiwan off the list, because America’s position in Asia is only weakened by making a security guarantee that isn’t credible—that’s why Ukraine never made it into NATO.
Other things would be left off, too. Beijing’s border disputes with non–U.S. allies would not be Washington’s problem. Hanoi is on its own, Manila and Tokyo are not. Then there are some tricky cases; should America go to war with China if Beijing attempts to change a previously agreed boundary?
Not all the answers are obvious, but we need them before a crisis materializes. Otherwise, America and her allies in Asia may find themselves bearing the risk of a policy of deterrence without the deterrent effect. That’s a bad deal, and Obama knows it. When the stakes are as high as they are in Asia, it is no longer prudent to be prepared to go to war for marginal interests, nor to tactfully avoid expressing resolve over things that really matter.
This doesn’t mean abandoning America’s values or the rules-based order she has presided over, which has been so important for Asia.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member