Is the midterm tsunami on the way?

Prior to this month it looked like this November would be similar to 1998. So far this year, our 2014 National Monthly McLaughlinOnline Poll has remained relatively constant. Since January a majority of likely voters gave the president a net negative overall job rating. However, the Democrats were able to maintain a plurality lead in the generic ballot for Congress — until this month.

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From January through April. Democrats held a slight, one- or two-point edge. Each month, one in six voters were undecided. Most of these undecided voters disapproved of the job the president is doing, but they couldn’t bring themselves to say they’d vote Republican for Congress. In fact, among those who disapproved of the job the president was doing, four in ten voters were actually saying they’d vote Democratic for Congress.

But this month, they appear to be breaking for Republicans. Even though the decisive plurality of voters in our national polls is Democratic, Republicans now lead on the generic ballot for Congress, 43 percent to 41 percent. Not a great lead and a long way from a trend, but the gravity of the president’s negative job rating, the parallel opposition to Obamacare, and the strong desire to put a check on the lame-duck president is beginning to create political momentum that could put Democrats under another tsunami.

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