Ten years from now, the funds available for the military and domestic programs will buy less than they do today. Meanwhile, costs in both categories are likely to rise faster than the rate of inflation. “Doing more with less” is a catchy slogan, but it only diverts attention from the real problem: the contradiction between our needs and the resources we commit to meet them.

The current structure of the federal budget makes this outcome inevitable. By 2015, federal revenues will recover from the Great Recession and stabilize at about 18% of GDP over the next decade. By 2024, however, we are on track to spend fully 17% of GDP on just two items—mandatory programs and interest on the debt—leaving almost nothing for discretionary spending. It only gets worse in the following decade.

That’s a formula for endlessly increasing deficits and an ever-rising ratio of debt to GDP. After bottoming out at $469 billion next year, the CBO projects, the annual deficit will begin to rise again and will exceed $1 trillion by the early 2020s. After doubling from 35% to more than 70% during the Great Recession, debt as a share of GDP will near 80% by 2024. Although we reached a truce in the budget wars, we’ve only postponed the problem.