Statistical model: Democrats have a 57% chance of keeping the Senate

With these state-by-state probabilities in hand, our machine randomly simulates all 36 Senate elections. Give it a try below. The spinners are calibrated to the current probabilities we’ve calculated for each state. We let the states move together to some extent, but you’ll no doubt occasionally see some surprising results — over 25 percent of the time, at least one of the races we call “likely” will be won by the opposite party.

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