What the poll found is fascinating. Moderates, according to the poll, aren’t tuned-out or ill-informed, but they tend to see both sides of complex issues—for example, they want the government to do more to help the economy, but they worry that it may be ineffective or counterproductive. They see both parties as overly ideological and wish politicians would compromise more. A plurality are Democrats, but they see themselves as slightly right-of-center ideologically, and one-third say they vote equally for Democrats and Republicans. And they are surprisingly young and diverse: Self-described moderates represent a 44 percent plurality of Hispanic and nonwhite voters and a 42 percent plurality of the Millennial generation.

“Moderates wrestle with, and often reject, what they see as the false either/or ideological choices that define modern politics,” Michelle Diggles and Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, two Third Way officials, wrote in a memo on the poll, which was provided exclusively to The Atlantic in advance of its release Thursday. “They recognize that both sides have a piece of the truth and see flaws in the standard liberal and conservative perspectives.”

The poll provides a road map for both parties as they hone their messages. For Democrats, it shows the party will have a hard time winning if it shifts to a self-consciously liberal tone: Just 38 percent of Democrats see themselves as liberal, while 37 percent call themselves moderate and another 25 percent call themselves conservative.