Can the Russian position even win? Putin isn’t really hiding a very good reason for postponing the referendum. He asked “representatives of southeast Ukraine and supporters of federalization to hold off the referendum scheduled for May 11, in order to give this dialogue the conditions it needs to have a chance.” (emphasis mine) Because eastern and southern Ukraine is not Crimea, and it is not at all clear that, were a referendum held in just four days, the results would come out in Russia’s favor. The unpopularity of the new government in Kiev here has not translated to favoring he idea of independence or joining up with Russia. Polls put the number at just 30 percent of people in the region supporting annexation. To get the right result, Russia would have to pull off a stupendous amount of fraud, thereby risking a massive backlash—and further violence—in these regions.
Which brings us to Odessa: The deadly, unexpected violence there over the weekend seems to have been a terrifying turning point. Putin did such a good job destabilizing Ukraine that the country is now slipping toward civil war as different Ukrainian groups fight each other, like they did in the streets of Odessa. Putin likely didn’t count on this, and it’s even likelier that the last thing he wants next door is a civil war. “If you get civil war there, it’s destabilizing to neighboring Russian regions, too,” says Masha Lipman, a political analyst with Moscow’s Carnegie Center.
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