Georgia – Republican insiders were worried that either Rep. Paul Broun or Rep. Phil Gingrey, both conservative firebrands, would be nominated. Although the primary hasn’t taken place yet, Broun and Gingrey are fourth and fifth, respectively, in current polling. The current leaders — Rep. Jack Kingston and David Perdue — are both more moderate than Broun and Gingrey.
Kansas – Milton Wolf (outsider), who posted X-rays of gunshot victims online, doesn’t seem likely to overcome Sen. Pat Roberts (establishment), even though Roberts faced question about whether he actually lived in Kansas. Roberts has been well ahead in polling.
Kentucky – Matt Bevin (outsider), who had some controversial things to say about cockfighting, has never pushed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (establishment) below the 50 percent mark in polling.
North Carolina – State Rep. Thom Tillis, the establishment favorite, looks to be in good shape, but he isn’t a sure thing. Polls show Tillis near or above the 40 percent necessary to avoid a primary runoff. And there are plenty of undecided voters, who may help him reach 40 percent.